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Every Other Return Is Already Priced In
If the good stuff is already in the price, where does the return come from?
Apr 2
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
1
March 2026
Why Gas Prices Moved Before Oil Did
What the refinery bottleneck tells us about food, chips, and the next recession
Mar 26
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
2
Your Offer Letter Is a Portfolio Decision
When buybacks drive returns and equity replaces wages, your comp structure becomes your biggest financial bet.
Mar 19
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
Congressional Stock Trading Is the Wrong Scandal
Where political enrichment actually happens
Mar 12
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
2
1
Cheaper Information Doesn't Mean Cheaper Decisions
The deflationary force from AI is real. Who captures it is a different question.
Mar 5
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
2
1
February 2026
Your Fund Manager Has to Guess
Why the market requires it, and how to tell good guessing from bad.
Feb 26
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
1
1
The Faster Race
How Inflation Changes the Rules of Economic Competition
Feb 19
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
1
The $670 Billion Question: Is AI Demand Real, or Are We Building on Subsidized Sand?
A framework for spotting subsidized AI demand before it turns into stranded assets
Feb 12
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
1
Build vs. Buy in the AI Era: Why “Just Rebuild Your SaaS” Is Harder Than It Sounds
AI can write the code. But code was never the expensive part.
Feb 7
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
1
October 2025
Follow the Money, Not the Multiples
In a world where liquidity, demographics, and central banks drive prices, the investor’s edge lies in anticipating the marginal buyer, not obsessing…
Oct 8, 2025
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
September 2025
Net Worth as Your Financial Compass
A framework for balancing housing, cars, and investments in an era of high rates and record prices.
Sep 22, 2025
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
1
June 2025
The Slow Unraveling
How History, Debt, and Distrust Are Reshaping the Dollar’s Role in the World
Jun 12, 2025
•
Alex Warfel, CFA
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