About This Newsletter
Fair Value is an investing, macro, and personal finance newsletter built around one idea: markets have mechanisms, and those mechanisms are worth understanding. Each week I take a market narrative, a capital allocation trend, a policy shift, or a behavioral trap and try to explain what is driving the outcome, what the incentives are, and what would have to be true for the conventional take to be wrong.
I share my analytical process openly, including where I am uncertain and what would change my mind. This is not a prediction newsletter and it is not investment advice. It is an attempt to reason carefully about money and markets in public, and to invite you to do the same.
This newsletter reflects my personal views and does not constitute investment advice.
Who Should Subscribe?
The reader this newsletter has found is not defined by credential or background. Some are finance professionals. Some are self-taught. Some are just getting started. What they share is that they read carefully, think about what they read, and would rather understand how something works than just follow what is happening.
If you want frameworks that hold up over time, analysis that shows its work, and honesty about what is uncertain, Fair Value is built for you. If you want stock picks or trading signals, it is not.
Why Subscribe?
Each post is built around at least one reusable framework and at least one testable claim. The goal is not to give you a take. It is to give you a way of thinking about a class of problems that holds up the next time a similar situation appears.
Coverage rotates across markets and macro, valuation and return drivers, behavioral finance, personal finance as a balance sheet, and structural shifts in technology and capital allocation. The common thread is mechanism: what is driving the outcome, who captures the value, who bears the loss, and what would change the analysis.
Every issue states what would change my mind. You should hold me to that.
About the Author
Alex Warfel, CFA, is a finance and analytics professional with deep expertise in quantitative research, data analytics, and financial modeling. He is currently a Business Intelligence Engineer at Amazon, where he develops advanced data-driven dashboards and analytical tools to optimize on-road staffing operations. By leveraging SQL and Python, Alex provides operational insights that help Amazon proactively address staffing challenges, ensuring timely and efficient deliveries across the logistics network.
Previously, at Gridwise, Alex significantly enhanced the company’s analytical capabilities, developing indices predictive of Uber’s trip volume based on proprietary and public data. His work established Gridwise’s Annual Gig Mobility Report as a trusted industry resource and streamlined internal analytics processes through a data analysis ticketing system.
As a Quantitative Research Analyst at PitchBook Data, Alex led the creation of influential market indicators such as the VC Dealmaking Indicator and the Supply and Demand of Capital model. His insights have been featured in major publications like Institutional Investor, Fortune, and VentureBeat, and discussed during corporate earnings calls. Alex also developed interactive dashboards using D3 and JavaScript, significantly boosting PitchBook’s lead generation and enhancing market transparency.
Earlier in his career, Alex worked as a Business Intelligence Consultant at IPC Global, building interactive dashboards for clients such as the School District of Philadelphia, empowering parents with data-driven insights into school performance. At Coventry First, he modeled and valued life insurance-linked securities, performing rigorous financial analyses involving complex mortality and discount rate projections.
Alex earned his Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration and Finance, minoring in Mathematics, from Marist College, where he actively participated in student-run investment funds and held leadership roles. He is a CFA charterholder, a designation earned through rigorous testing across ethics, economics, portfolio management, and investment analysis, held by only a select percentage of finance professionals worldwide.
Outside of his professional pursuits, Alex co-founded SnoQap, a nonprofit dedicated to cultivating collegiate student writers on topics of finance, economics, and politics. He remains active as a board member, guiding organizational strategy. An Eagle Scout with a passion for leadership and community service, Alex enjoys hiking, backpacking, cycling, and running. He lives in Seattle, WA, where he is dedicated to helping others achieve financial independence and live empowered, fulfilling lives.
